It has been a question asked among many people, especially those living in and around earthquake-affected regions, can we predict the occurrence of an earthquake? Seismic experts have proclaimed that earthquakes cannot be predicted, as numerous variables must be taken into consideration that have made people believe it is impossible.
However, as we are propelled into a new technological age of big data and AI, a team from Peking University has begun to show promising results that indicate earthquake prediction is an achievable goal. After 11 years of research, and 5 years of accumulated data, the AETA team has unveiled precursory indicators below the earth that points toward similarities that occur before, during, and after an earthquake strikes.
Due to the seismic similarities detected by AETA’s sensory network, it is becoming more of a reality that earthquakes are entirely predictable. The global accuracy rate of predicting an earthquake was less than 30%, using AETA’s new approach of technology, the accuracy rate has increased to 70% and continually rising.
AETA, in partnership with SVV, has developed a 3-part sensory system. These sensory systems are deployed across earthquake-affected areas and record seismic data below the earth’s surface. Currently, AETA has deployed over 300 of these sensors across the Chinese provinces Sichuan and Yunnan.
Over the course of five years, these sensors have collected 43TB worth of seismic data. Due to this accumulation of data, the AETA team built a base algorithm that looks for similarities before, during, and after an earthquake strikes. Due to these similarities, the algorithm is capable of detecting precursory indicators that will point toward an earthquake’s magnitude, epicenter, and time of occurrence. In other words, predict & forecast an earthquake.
In 2018 AETA’s solution provided two successful over 5.0 magnitude earthquake forecasts to the Sichuan Earthquake Bureau. Since 2018 there hasn’t been an over 5.0 magnitude earthquake within those regions. However, the Bureau is being constantly updated about any impending earthquake detections.
The AETA team has begun talks with earthquake-affected countries across Asia, Europe, and the Americas, to deploy their solution and begin running similar forecasts. The key vision of AETA is to save lives and reduce economic damages caused by earthquakes. With a seven-day warning window, this vision is highly achievable.