Knowledge is power – whether harnessed by man or machine. Few topics right now are as scorching hot as AI. We are seeing it sweep society leaving little in its path the same as before. Many an industry has enhanced its efficiency manifold – from automobile part tracking to home energy optimization.
As time goes on, we’re going to continue to see the proliferation of sports betting and the entertainment offered to players, in ways that sportsbooks have never before been capable of. Let’s dive into this sea of data that is going to so dramatically revolutionize sports betting.
Data sources AI prediction will harness in sports
Traditionally, sportsbooks have been run on the back of bookies’ gut feel. They are close observers of all sports and it’s their job to know better than anyone what the conditions are in order to set the odds for each betting side to be as even as possible. Machines are now being operated 24/7 to pick up data from all sorts of sources that individuals have not picked up on.
Here are some of the primary data sources machine learning will rely on.
Weather forecasts
Teams are affected by rain, cold, heat, snow, and wind in fascinating ways. Computers handle this better than humans can. For instance, when it comes to baseball, batters gain an advantage. There are more balls thrown (meaning non-strikes) and players get on base more, despite that the difference is very small, and this statistic may go the other way under certain circumstances, varying by team and game format like regular season or playoffs.
In cricket, it can be harder to score runs in the rain as the wet field can stop the ball or increase runs by making it bounce in unpredictable ways. As for football, the ball can become harder to control while players like defenders and goalies can make more mistakes by slipping and falling. Fields are different as well. In the USWNT vs Canada football game last year, the field was so covered in puddles the ball didn’t travel anywhere.Conducting a real-time analysis of how the ball is in fact behaving in a game is difficult to analyze without automated ball trackers.As for American football, knowing that there is going to be rain will almost certainly lower the scoring and turnovers while the snow is known to increase the points, which a sport betting site needs to adjust for.
Another famous phenomenon in that sport is that Peyton Manning in the NFL was known to play poorly in cold weather situations, even after he started playing for the Denver Broncos. Not every player is as famous as him who may underperform in cold weather too, or any other type of weather for that matter. Furthermore, trackers placed on a ball can record how much a ball’s path is being altered by the wind.
Tempering misleading statistics
A team may have a better record than the other, but could it be due to luck? How good has their competition been? Sometimes the ball just doesn’t bounce a player’s way too and they lose a few nailbiters right at the end.
A few not-so-obvious things can clarify confusion:
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Score differentials, in other words, how many total points total a team has scored vs. their opponents;
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Player-generated ratings for their position based on innovative scoring systems, such as PFF grades;
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Statistics adjusted for randomness and factors attributable to their teammates;
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Streaks of performance, leaving earlier-season games less relevant;
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Tired or injured players’ plummeting performances or slowing down on the field during a game;
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Players’ and teams’ typical performances in certain game periods (1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th) or innings;
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More frequent risk-taking tendencies in coaching situations.
Home-field advantage
In most sports, the home team is considered to have a small edge against opponents. First of all, they have the home crowd cheering for them and energizing them. They often make so much noise that it’s difficult for the other team to communicate, and certain teams are often more adjusted to playing in certain conditions. Turf teams’ performance drops off significantly while playing on the grass.
Head-to-head history
Some teams have a psychological edge over others that might be better than them. This also applies to star players going at it that used to be another star’s inferior on the same team. One good example of that is how the Rajasthan Royals simply have the Punjab Kings’ number in cricket whenever they play.
On top of that, teams simply have different advantages that fare well against some teams more than others, such as speed defeating wicket-taking.
Player interviews
What players say during interviews can reveal some important details. Their texts and tweets can be analyzed, which may provide certain insights. While players and coaches often deliberately provide false impressions to the media in terms of the severity of injuries and their game strategies to lower the opponent’s advantage, there are still things that AI can pick up on.
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Players speaking in bashful words performing worse and exhuberant players tending to play better;
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Erratic tweets on X.com suggesting a player’s decreasing focus;
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Angry players and coaches making more mistakes.
Referee history with teams and bias
Referees also have their own tendencies in how they officiate games. They do sometimes have records that favor the home team or particular teams over others. This could be simply because of enforcing penalties in different ways. However, with widespread corruption going on, some referees do favor certain teams deliberately in certain games. This is often overlooked.
Areas that will be supercharged in sports betting
AI simply takes a much wider range of data points in real time. AI can factor in external influences like public sentiment, betting patterns, and market shifts, which are often not considered in traditional models. By continuously updating odds as new data streams in, AI ensures that betting lines reflect the most current information, providing bettors with more reliable options and better opportunities for strategic wagering.
Quicker-adjusting odds
When a star or even a mid player gets injured in a game, machine learning can produce an analysis of how that will likely affect the game to adjust the odds to the most level headed they can be. The same applies if goals are difficult to score because the wind keeps blowing the ball off to the side, rendering it hard to score.
It also allows them to bet on things like:
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the speed of the ball;
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greater combinations of events;
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changing circumstances putting the odds in their favor;
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whether a hockey player is about to score a goal.
Deeper personalization
The standard for entertainment has been rising. The more relevant betting offers are to gamblers, the more excitement they get. AI analyzes their histories in terms of teams and players they like, the types of bets they enjoy making, and even the time of day they’re most likely to bet. This can allow online casinos to send these bettors personalized special offers.
On top of that, if they liked betting on a certain home-run hitter, they can be informed on other big swingers that they could bet on.
Responsible gaming
Machine learning analyzes unusual trends going on associated with user accounts. When people are exhibiting fishy, erratic behavior, or someone is logging onto a betting app or website from an unusual location, at an irregular time, or using an unrecognized device, this provokes a more rigorous check. The same applies to multiple users engaging in suspicious activities in the same region, such as fraud or money laundering.
Gambling online is going to continue to get safer on account of governments become ever more vigilant against abuses and imposing ever more regulations too. A lot of them are, meanwhile, gaining more experience regulating online sports betting.
